NFL Week 14 picks: Tom Brady leads Buccaneers to upset of 49ers, Chargers shock Dolphins, Lions beat Vikings

NFL Week 14 picks: Tom Brady leads Buccaneers to upset of 49ers, Chargers shock Dolphins, Lions beat Vikings

It took 13 weeks, however we lastly have our first group eradicated from playoff competition this yr and to nobody’s shock, that group is the Houston Texans (the Bears had been additionally eradicated on Sunday, however the Texans received the respect of formally being the primary group).

Houston, you might have an issue and your drawback is that the Texans are the worst group in soccer this yr and their loss on Sunday just about sums up all the pieces that is flawed with them. The Texans did not surrender a single offensive landing to the Browns in Week 13, and but, they nonetheless someway managed to lose by 13 factors, which is so unhealthy that it is really spectacular. 

One factor I do know for positive is that I will not be choosing the Texans to win any of their remaining video games, and crap, now that I’ve advised you that, meaning I’ve now spoiled considered one of my picks for Week 14, as a result of now you already know that I am choosing the Texans to lose to the Cowboys. I do not wish to spoil any extra of my picks, so let’s hurry up and get to the Week 14 picks. 

Really, earlier than we get to the picks, here is a fast reminder that you may try the weekly picks from each NFL expert by clicking here. Should you do not click on over, I will not be offended. Nonetheless, I shall be offended if you happen to do not join’s NFL publication, which I pump out 4 days per week. I even have a publication about what it is like to jot down newsletters, however I will not ask you to subscribe to that one.

As for the soccer publication, if you wish to subscribe, all you have to do is click here and enter your email address. It takes 9.3 seconds to enroll and if you happen to’re questioning how I do know that, it is as a result of I acquired bored and timed it as soon as. One factor that is not boring is the podcast the early picks podcast that I recorded with Will Brinson this week. You could find out our 4 favourite early picks for Week 14 by listening beneath. 

Alright, I believe that is all of the self-promotion I’ve for the week. Let’s get to the picks. 

NFL Week 14 Picks

Minnesota (10-2) at Detroit (5-7)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Featured Sport | Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

When two division rivals play one another for the second time in a season, I normally throw the outcomes of the primary recreation out the window, however I am scripting this choose from a windowless closet, so I can not do this, which might be for one of the best, as a result of I believe that first recreation provides us a small trace of what is going on to occur this time round.

In that first recreation, the Lions jumped out to a 14-0 lead earlier than doing what you’d count on the Lions to do in that scenario: Absolutely imploding and shedding. The Lions shot themselves within the foot so many occasions in that recreation that you just’d suppose they might’ve have run out of bullets and even toes, however nope, they simply stored doing it. 

They missed two area objectives within the first recreation, they’d two failed fourth downs and Jared Goff threw an interception within the ultimate minute that iced the sport. Nobody is best at gifting away video games than the Lions and it actually felt like they gave away the primary recreation. Nonetheless, that was the previous Lions. Now, the Vikings shall be coping with the brand new Lions, who’re abruptly one of many hottest groups within the NFL. 

The brand new Lions do not blow video games, except you depend the Buffalo loss on Thanksgiving. OK, the brand new Lions do blow video games, however not as usually because the previous Lions. 

The final 4 video games between these two groups have been determined by a median 2.5 factors per recreation, so I totally count on issues to get loopy as soon as once more on Sunday and loopy could be the Lions really holding on to beat an excellent group at residence. So sure, I am choosing the Lions right here, however that is arguably an excellent factor for the Vikings since I’ve whiffed on 4 straight video games involving Minnesota. I would like this streak to finish. Do not let me down Lions. 

I believe we would see a shootout right here and that is as a result of we’ve got the the group that is given up probably the most factors within the NFL this yr (Lions) going up in opposition to the group that is surrendering probably the most passing yards per recreation (Vikings). 

The choose: Lions 34-31 over Vikings

Baltimore (8-4) at Pittsburgh (5-7)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Featured Sport | Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Should you would have requested me 5 weeks in the past who I believed was going to win this recreation, I in all probability would’ve picked the Ravens by seven touchdowns. I am undecided why you’d have requested me about this recreation again then, however I am a pleasant individual, so I’d have answered your query even when I believed it was bizarre. 

After 9 weeks of play, the Steelers had been 2-6 and it regarded like they had been going toe-to-toe with the Texans for the unofficial title of worst group within the AFC. As for the Ravens, they had been 6-3 after 10 weeks they usually simply may have been 9-0 with all three losses coming by 4 factors or much less. Nonetheless, issues have barely modified over the previous few weeks. On the Steelers’ finish, they acquired T.J. Watt again in Week 10 they usually’ve been practically unbeatable ever since. Watt is without doubt one of the most dominant gamers within the NFL and since his return, the Steelers have gone 3-1, which makes them 4-1 on the season in any recreation the place Watt performs. If the NFL was truthful, it will solely depend the video games this season that Watt has performed and the Steelers could be within the thick of the playoff hunt, however the NFL is not truthful and nobody is aware of that greater than the Ravens, who will seemingly be taking part in with out Lamar Jackson on Sunday. 

Usually, when a beginning QB goes down, that is when a group will hit the panic button, however I do not suppose that would be the case for Baltimore. The Ravens have Tyler Huntley to take his place and Huntley is just like the store-brand Lamar Jackson, and let me simply say, that is not essentially an insult. Should you’ve ever had store-brand Froot Loops, then you already know that generally the store-brand is best than the nationwide model and Huntley has the expertise to be store-brand Froot Loops. 

Huntley is mainly a mini-me model of Lamar Jackson and based mostly on what he did in 4 begins final yr, he would possibly really have the ability to present a spark for a Ravens offense that is been in a rut over the previous few weeks.

I believe we’ll see a minor drop-off from the Ravens offense with out Jackson, however I additionally suppose that Huntley performs nicely sufficient to steer Baltimore to a win. 

The choose: Ravens 20-17 over Steelers. 

Tampa Bay (6-6) at San Francisco (8-4)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

Featured Sport | San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This recreation was alleged to be giving us Tom Brady in opposition to Jimmy Garoppolo for the FIRST TIME ever, however apparently, that is an excessive amount of handsomeness on the sphere at one time, so the Soccer Gods determined to not let it occur. With Garoppolo now out for the season, we’ll as an alternative be getting Brady in opposition to Brock Purdy. We’re getting a QB who made his first profession begin 21 years in the past in opposition to a QB who shall be making his first profession begin on Sunday. 

We’re getting a QB who has seven Super Bowl rings in opposition to a QB who was actually chosen with the ultimate choose within the 2022 NFL Draft. The ultimate participant taken within the draft is called “Mr. Irrelevant” and I am guessing that is as a result of they virtually at all times find yourself having an irrelevant NFL profession. 

Should you’re a seventh-round choose making an attempt to play quarterback within the NFL, the deck is fairly stacked in opposition to you. Over the previous 15 years, there have been precisely 26 quarterbacks taken within the seventh-round and of these 26 quarterbacks, solely six of them ended up beginning a recreation and people six quarterbacks have mixed to go 17-35. Trevor Siemian is carrying a number of the load there with a profession document of 13-17 and if you happen to do not embrace him, then the document for seventh-round draft picks drops to 4-18 over the previous 15 years. 

Purdy really regarded purdy good (HA HA) in opposition to the Dolphins, going 25 of 37 for 210 yards and two touchdowns, however that was in opposition to a protection that wasn’t ready to face him. The Buccaneers shall be ready to face him and he is not going to be catching them without warning. 

The one upside for Purdy is that he is in an offensive system the place practically any QB can thrive. Due to Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers offense is actually a self-driving automotive that may perform with anybody behind the wheel. The one means it would not work is that if the driving force someway crashes it and that is what I am afraid would possibly occur with a seventh-round choose behind the wheel. 

Additionally, I ought to in all probability level out that Tom Brady has by no means misplaced in a recreation the place the opposing QB was making his first profession begin. 

Since Purdy is a Mr. Irrelevant, I believe it solely is sensible right here to foretell that the sport goes to be received by one other Mr. Irrelevant: Ryan Succop. The Buccaneers kicker was the ultimate choose of the 2009 NFL Draft and because the most profitable Mr. Irrelevant in historical past, I’ll say he continues that success by kicking the Bucs to an upset win on Sunday. 

The choose: Buccaneers 23-20 over 49ers

Miami (8-4) at L.A. Chargers (6-6)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Featured Sport | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins

If I’ve realized one factor about Chargers followers over the previous 48 hours, it is that I believe they’ve all given up on Brandon Staley. As a matter of reality, I am fairly positive that “hearth Brandon Staley” was trending on Twitter after the Chargers misplaced to the Raiders

I am undecided the Chargers must be making giant organizational selections based mostly on what they learn on Twitter, however I’ve to say, these followers are fairly persuasive. Not solely do they wish to see Staley canned, however additionally they know who they wish to exchange him: Sean Payton. 

One purpose followers are so upset with Staley is as a result of the Chargers have not fairly lived as much as expectations this yr. The Chargers had been alleged to be contending for an AFC West title, however as an alternative, they’re sitting at 6-6, a full three video games behind the Chiefs

One purpose they’ve struggled is as a result of their protection cannot cease the run. And after I say their protection cannot cease the run, I imply that they’re actually the worst group at stopping the run in additional than 60 years. They’re giving up greater than 5.4 yards per carry which is greater than every other group since 1960. 

The issue for Staley is that he is alleged to be a defensive mastermind, however I am undecided you are allowed to have that title if you happen to’re on an inventory like this. I imply, the 1933 Cincinnati Reds had been so unhealthy that they folded after two seasons, which is type of a bizarre coincidence, as a result of on the fee issues are going, Staley would possibly solely final two seasons with the Chargers. 

Thankfully for Staley, if there’s one group that may not have the ability to run the ball on the Chargers, it is Miami. The Dolphins are averaging simply 89.7 yards per recreation on the bottom, which makes them considered one of simply 5 groups averaging beneath 100 yards per recreation for the season. In addition they have the fifth-worst yards per carry fee within the NFL. If the Chargers protection cannot decelerate the Dolphins’ dashing assault, then Staley would possibly simply wish to go forward and name it quits. 

If I do know one factor concerning the Chargers, it is that they like to tease their followers and a giant tease could be beating the Dolphins this week solely to lose all that momentum by shedding subsequent week, in order that’s precisely what I’ll say occurs. 

The choose: Chargers 30-27 over Dolphins

New England (6-6) at Arizona (4-8)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Featured Sport | Arizona Cardinals vs. New England Patriots

If I’ve realized one factor concerning the Patriots this season, it is that the important thing to beating them is to have a cell quarterback. Invoice Belichick is arguably one of the best defensive thoughts in NFL historical past, however whenever you throw a cell quarterback at him, it is like he forgets methods to coach. In three video games this season in opposition to cell quarterbacks, New England has gone 0-3 and you already know what, let’s go forward and shortly recount how the Patriots’ protection fared in every of these video games: 

  • Week 3: Ravens 37-26 over Patriots. Lamar Jackson throws for 218 yards and 4 touchdowns whereas including one other 107 yards on the bottom with a dashing landing. 
  • Week 6: Bears 33-14 over Patriots. Justin Fields throws for 179 yards and a landing whereas including one other 82 yards on the bottom with a dashing landing. 
  • Week 13: Bills 24-10 over Patriots. Josh Allen throws for 222 yards and two touchdowns whereas including one other 20 yards dashing on the bottom.  

In every recreation, the quarterback’s skill to run the ball opened issues up on the bottom and the Patriots ended up surrendering a median of 187.7 rush yards per recreation in these three losses. What this implies is that Kyler Murray may give New England matches, however that is provided that he is not throwing his personal matches. 

One factor that makes this recreation arduous to choose is that I am undecided which quarterback is extra annoyed proper now. On one hand, you might have Murray, who will yell at anybody and everybody when he will get annoyed. 

Murray yelling at Kliff Kingsbury? We have seen loads of that this yr. 

Nonetheless, it isn’t simply Kingsbury who’s been yelled at by Murray. He is additionally expressed frustrations with DeAndre Hopkins

In fact, the one individual extra annoyed than Murray together with his offense proper now could be Mac Jones

So we’ve got two annoyed quarterbacks going at it on Monday evening in a recreation the place the man who will get extra annoyed might be going to lose. On account of the truth that the Patriots can not seem to cease cell quarterbacks, I’ll say Belichick finally ends up getting annoyed, however in the long run, I’ll say that Kliff Kingsbury finally ends up as probably the most annoyed man on the sphere as a result of his group goes to discover a solution to lose one other shut recreation. 

The choose: Patriots 19-16 over Cardinals

NFL Week 14 picks: All the remaining

Raiders 27-17 over Rams
Bengals 30-20 over Browns
Payments 27-20 over Jets|
Cowboys 31-17 over Texans
Titans 24-16 over Jaguars
Eagles 34-24 over Giants
Chiefs 24-13 over Broncos
Seahawks 26-23 over Panthers

BYES: Falcons, Bears, Packers, Saints, Commanders, Colts

Final Week 

Finest choose: Final week, I predicted that the Bengals would beat the Chiefs by precisely three factors and guess what occurred? The Bengals beat the Chiefs by precisely three factors. Relating to choosing Chiefs video games, there are solely two guidelines: If they don’t seem to be taking part in the Bengals, you choose them to win. In the event that they ARE taking part in the Bengals, you choose them to lose. It is that straightforward. Because the begin of the 2019 season, Mahomes has a document of 33-4 within the months of November, December and January: He is 0-3 in opposition to the Bengals and 33-1 in opposition to everybody else. 

Worst choose: I solely missed three picks in Week 13, however I will not be taking a victory lap and that is as a result of if I attempt to take one, I am going to journey over my very own toes and fall flat on my face, type of like I did with all my upset picks. Final week, I predicted that we would see three massive upsets in Week 13 — Titans over Eagles, Jets over Vikings and Dolphins over 49ers — and each single a type of predictions backfired on me. The worst half is not that I acquired the picks flawed, it is how I acquired them flawed. The Titans forgot that A.J. Brown existed, the Dolphins could not beat a rookie seventh-round QB who was taking part in the primary recreation of his profession and the Jets had THREE possibilities to attain from the one-yard line with beneath two minutes left to play they usually could not do it. And because you’re now in all probability questioning, sure, I did cry myself to sleep on Sunday evening. 

Lastly, if you happen to guys have ever questioned which groups I am really good at choosing, here is a fast take a look at my greatest and worst groups relating to picks this yr. 

Groups I am 11-1 choosing this yr (Straight up): Chiefs.
Longest successful streak: Chiefs (9 straight video games picked accurately)

Staff I have been the worst at choosing this yr (Straight up): Raiders (4-8).
Longest shedding streak: Vikings (4 straight video games picked incorrectly) 

Each different group is someplace within the center. 

Picks File

Straight up in Week 13: 11-3-1
SU general: 117-76-1

Towards the unfold in Week 13: 9-6
ATS general: 92-95-8 

You could find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he is not doing a type of issues, he is in all probability consuming store-brand froot loops by himself whereas looking out on-line for any merchandise he can discover that options the 1933 Cincinnati Reds.

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