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Knowledgeable Week 16 greatest bets for Giants vs. Vikings, extra

Knowledgeable Week 16 greatest bets for Giants vs. Vikings, extra

Knowledgeable Week 16 greatest bets for Giants vs. Vikings, extra


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monster +4
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1 p.m. ET

Chris Reuben: The vikings Nonetheless overrated due to their document (11-3), which they amassed regardless of passing 44.6 yards per recreation.

Regardless of the expertise disparity between the 2 video games, the Giants have been the higher crew, rating twenty second in general DVOA in comparison with the twenty fifth Vikings. There’s a barely bigger disparity if you have a look at weighted DVOA, which values ​​latest recreation pace, and the Giants are twenty first and the Vikings are twenty sixth.

The Giants protection performs the league’s highest price of man protection, which Kirk Cousins ​​has struggled in opposition to. He averaged 7.2 yards on focused move makes an attempt in opposition to males in comparison with 8.3 in opposition to the zone. The Giants additionally blitz on the highest price within the league (40.7%), and beating the blitz is a significant downside for Cousins ​​as nicely. His Professional Soccer Focus grade of 52.7 when blitzed ranked thirty sixth out of 39 eligible quarterbacks, and he suffered a dropoff in effectivity throughout the board.

  • Cousins ​​when not blitzed: 68.4% completion share, 7.5 yards per try, 95.7 score
  • Cousins ​​vs. Blitz: 55.6% completion share, 5.6 yards per try, 80.4 score

It is not simply the blitz that has given Cousins ​​issues. He struggled in opposition to four-man rushes, as nicely, dropping his passer score to 79.4 when pressured.

Regardless of their blitz-happy identification, the Giants now rank fourth in general stress price (24.5%) because of a now-healthy entrance 4 that includes Kayvon Thibodeaux and Aziz Oluzari on the perimeters and Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence inside. New York ought to have the ability to discover success in opposition to a Minnesota offensive line that has allowed Cousins ​​to stress 37.0% of its dropbacks, seventh-most.

That is an enormous purpose the Vikings are simply twenty second in offensive DVOA and twenty second when weighting latest video games extra closely. Williams and Lawrence particularly ought to have the ability to wreak havoc apocalypse Inside in opposition to proper guard Ed Ingram and middle Austin Schlottman. Ingram is a struggling rookie who ranks 68th at PFF out of 75 certified guards in move safety. Schlottman is making his third begin of the season instead of Garrett Bradbury (again), an undrafted fifth-year professional who has allowed 9 pressures in his first two begins.

The Vikings will nonetheless transfer the ball right here, however the stress will assist the Giants get stops in key conditions. This method has been all seasons, as New York Ranked fourth in red-zone conversion price allowed (50.0%) and fifth in third-down conversion price allowed (34.9%).

It is surprisingly the Giants offense that has been the extra environment friendly of the 2, rating 14th and twelfth general whereas weighting latest video games extra closely. The Vikings protection, in the meantime, is twentieth general with a Twenty fourth-place rating in weighted DVOA and is trending downward. The Vikings protection allowed opponents to maneuver the ball at will – 5,589 of them total Yards allowed have been a league-high — however managed to drift at occasions as they commit the ninth-most turnovers (29), which does not bode nicely in opposition to a large offense tied with Philadelphia for the league lead with simply 13 turnovers.

One of many essential causes the Giants do not flip the ball over is the play of Daniel Jones, who leads the league with a 1.0% interception price.

Jones has thrown only one interception in six street video games this season and has been among the best quarterbacks to return on the street all through his profession. In line with our Motion Labs knowledge, 15-5-1 (75%) ATS as a street underdog in his profession with 12-1 (92%) ATS as a street canine lower than 8 factors.


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Under 43.5
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1 p.m. ET

Chris Reuben: This is likely one of the larger totals of the week, because the forecast requires a temperature of “simply” 11 levels beneath freezing and a mean wind pace of “simply” 11 mph, although I believe that is not based mostly on the climate, however slightly each tending to defend up. , with Panthers tenth in protection in DVOA via Week 10, and the lion fifteenth (although price noting the beneath 6-3 in video games began by Jared Goff in sub-40 temps).

The Lions protection has made a shocking turnaround since altering their scheme and firing defensive backs coach Aubrey Nice previous to Week 9, enhancing not solely in opposition to the move however throughout the board. Listed below are their per-game numbers earlier than and after the change:

  • Weeks 1-8: 32.1 factors, 421.3 complete yards, 0.75 turnovers
  • Weeks 9-15: 19.9 factors, 375.7 complete yards, 1.71 turnovers

The Lions gave up 154.9 Rushing Yards 112.0 per recreation over their first seven video games, 112.0 per recreation over their final seven, which is massive in opposition to a Panthers offense that has mentioned a projected run of 51.0% since interim coach Steve Wilks took over. And it would even promote the Lions quick on this matchup, as 45% of Detroit’s dashing yardage allowed via Week 9 is to opposing quarterbacks as they face a formidable slate of prime scramblers, together with Justin Fields and Josh Allen.

Towards backs via Week 8, the Lions have allowed simply 56.3 yards on 17.6 carries. carries Per recreation, good for a star allowed 3.2 yards per carry.

Sam Darnold is not a lot of a risk on the bottom — he is averaging 3.0 11.7 yards per carry — and must cope with a Lions protection that blitzes on the sixth-highest price (31.6%) when he returns to move. Darnold’s 59.8 PFF grade vs. blitzes when the protection sends further rushers ranks him thirty eighth amongst 48 quarterbacks with no less than 20 blitzed dropbacks.

Whereas this is not one of many worst climate video games of the week, it is price noting that the Lions’ offense has seen an enormous dropoff when occurring the street this season whatever the situations.

  • House: 32.1 factors, 341.7 complete yards, 0.75 turnovers
  • Street: 18.7 factors, 401.4 complete yards, 1.33 turnovers

The Lions performed good protection Jet On the street final week, but it surely’s nonetheless price noting that although they scored 20 factors, they have been inches away from doubtlessly scoring simply six factors on a Cal Raymond punt return and a Jets busted protection. purpose). The Lions cannot put up large numbers in opposition to a Panthers protection that has allowed simply 13.0 factors per recreation since Wilks took over.

There are not any offense stats to get assist from the officers, as Sean Hochuli’s crew has mentioned 3.0 offensive holding penalties per recreation, almost a full penalty per recreation greater than most crews and the league common of two.19. In line with our Motion Labs knowledge, the beneath is 41-29-3 (59%) all-time in video games managed by Hochili. That features an 8-5 (62%) mark this season and a 23-5-1 (82%) mark when the overall is beneath 45.

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QuickSlip is an Motion Community characteristic that enables customers to mechanically pre-load their guess slips into FanDuel Sportsbook.


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Texans +3.5
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the time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Reuben: Malik Willis solely handed the ball to Derrick Henry 32 occasions for 219 yards and two touchdowns in what was the league’s worst run protection on this crew’s 17-10 opener, but it surely might have been extra. A wrestle at the moment. The Texans have since improved in run protection and ranked tenth in DVOA in opposition to the run since Week 10.

What’s extra, the Titans positioned middle Ben Jones (concussion) and guard Nate Davis (ankle) on IR this week. Each are massive losses, as Jones had a PFF grade of 72.6, eighth amongst 39 qualifiers at middle, and Davis had a PFF grade of 70.6, 18th amongst 86 qualifiers at guard. The duo joins left sort out Taylor Lewan (knee), which means greater than half of Tennessee’s beginning offensive line is now on IR.

The Titans are additionally coping with a slew of accidents on protection. They positioned cornerback Chrisitan Fulton (groin), linebacker Dylan Cole (ankle) and cornerback Terrence Mitchell (hamstring) on ​​IR this week. Additionally they lately misplaced linebacker David Lengthy (ankle), who was ranked 14th out of 80 linebackers by PFF.

With accidents on each side of the ball, it is a lengthy shot for the Titans, particularly with Willis once more beginning instead of the participant with essentially the most vital harm (Ryan Tannehill; ankle). Tennessee averaged simply 17.0 factors and 48.5 internet passing yards in Willis’ two begins and now abruptly faces a Texans crew that has almost upset the Cowboys (27-23 loss) and Chiefs (30-24 loss) the previous two weeks.

The whole for this recreation is within the mid-30s, which makes the underdog much more priceless. In line with our Motion Labs knowledge, underdogs by multiple subject purpose with 47 or fewer totals are 64-37 (63%) ATS this season, protecting a mean of two.2 factors per recreation.

What’s QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Motion Community characteristic that enables customers to mechanically pre-load their guess slips into FanDuel Sportsbook.


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