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Greatest bets for Jets vs. Dolphins at 1 pm ET, extra

Greatest bets for Jets vs. Dolphins at 1 pm ET, extra

Greatest bets for Jets vs. Dolphins at 1 pm ET, extra


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NFL Week 18 Predictions and Picks

decide up
Jet +3.5 | Wager to make +3
greatest guide
the time
1 p.m. ET

John Lan Franca: Let me get this straight. 4.5 factors value spreading the information of Mike White’s exit? Bettors are so afraid of beginning QB Jack Wilson, they rushed to guess on the Dolphins right here; However the excellent news is, it is Joe Flacco beginning for the Jets, not Wilson.

Within the three video games Flacco has began, the Jets offense ranks sixteenth in offensive DVOA. With Tua Tagovailoa lacking in three video games, the Dolphins offense ranks nineteenth in the identical class.

Skyler Thompson will begin for Miami, and I am unsure he ought to put up factors towards many groups. Thompson averaged an inefficient 5.1 yards per try, with 4.3% of his throws deemed worthy of turnovers. He shall be with out the companies of Teron Armstead, the Professional-Bowl left sort out who has allowed simply 15 pressures in 435 go blocking snaps this season.

Factors shall be at a premium on this divisional battle, thus capturing a couple of above subject targets is an incredible worth. I might nonetheless play it at +3.

What’s QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Motion Community characteristic that permits customers to robotically pre-load their guess slips into FanDuel Sportsbook.



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decide up
Beneath 37.5
greatest guide
the time
1 p.m. ET

Brandon Anderson: Each of those are playoff-worthy groups, however the damage report has sidetracked on the flawed time. The NFL is a conflict of attrition, and the Jets and Dolphins are dropping.

Every week in the past, it appeared like a marquee Week 18 postseason play-in. As an alternative, the Jets are already eradicated and the Dolphins are simply hanging on, and each groups will flip to third-string QBs as Joe Flacco and Skyler Thompson battle.

It isn’t simply the quarterback, although. Each offensive traces are in sorry form. Terron Armstead is questionable, appears to be like like we’ll miss 4 offensive tackles on this sport.

Miami’s secondary Xavien Howard is questionable and others are absent and key commerce acquisition Bradley Chubb can be a query mark. I believe a few of these guys will let it go in such an enormous sport, however nonetheless, the Jets have a transparent well being benefit.

I like the underside. How are you going to not decide an below in an vital January sport in climate with two third string quarterbacks and no blocking? In addition to, of late these events have turn out to be mirror pictures.

You already know the Jets are all protection with a piecemeal offense, however the Dolphins have had the same profile over the previous six weeks with an improved protection offsetting a weak offense. The Jets are 11-5 below, and for all of the hype surrounding Miami, the offense has been held to 21 or much less in 10 of 16 video games.

The Jets are the higher crew proper now. Their protection is definitely the perfect unit on the sector, and even an ageing Flacco is a greater possibility than Thompson, who was crushed by these very Jets in his solely different skilled begin.

Miami is at residence and nonetheless alive for the playoffs, however that is actually the one issue on this crew’s favor. I consider Robert Saleh’s boys will come out swinging, finish the season on a excessive be aware and ship the Dolphins packing.

I would lean towards the Jets slightly than guess, partly as a result of I’ve already light Miami’s playoffs, however you possibly can guess on it multiple approach. I just like the below greatest, however you too can guess the Jets or play an SGP with each — or you possibly can play the most secure combo with the Dolphins crew below 20.5.

type: Wager below 37.5
Tendency: Jet +3; Dolphin TT is below 20.5


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decide up
Garrett Wilson Anytime TD (+260)
greatest guide
the time
1 p.m. ET

Sam Farley: Hearken to me. Sure, you are proper, Garrett Wilson hasn’t scored since Week 12, however the important thing to this guess is Joe Flacco.

The previous Raven is beginning this sport, with Jack Wilson serving as his backup. Flacco began the primary three video games of the season, and if you dig into the numbers from these contests, the stats clearly level to an even bigger function for Garrett Wilson.

In video games Flacco began with Garrett Wilson, the rookie vast receiver noticed a complete of 33 targets, his lowest quantity in any sport at eight. He solely hauled in 18 makes an attempt, however the quantity was there.

At +260 I would be banking on Flacco and Wilson the place they left off.



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decide up
Falcon-4 | Wager-5
greatest guide
the time
1 p.m. ET

Simon Hunter: I do not at all times guess a rookie as a four-point favourite, however after I do, it is the final week of the season. Let’s get bizarre, folks.

Week 18 is all about chaos and insanity. Sadly, with a lot line transferring, it is exhausting to discover a sport that will not transfer like loopy whilst you learn it.

Again to it, although, we all know the deal: Tampa Bay is resting for the playoffs, even when Todd Bowles says they’ll play. In the meantime, there’s nothing to play for for the Falcons however they don’t seem to be going to vary something. They’ll give it a go and attempt to take down a division rival.

The Falcons wish to run the ball all sport towards a crew that does not wish to be there. It is too good to be true.

This line ought to be nearer to the Falcons -6. Luckily for us, the plenty got here to Tampa in droves. Granted we might get Blaine Gabbert or Kyle Trask so this quantity ought to be -6.

Brady has carried this horrible Bucs squad all season. Take him out of the equation and it is a backside crew.

I like this quantity and I count on it to drop by kickoff. I would guess the Falcons -5.



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decide up
Beneath 40.5
greatest guide
the time
1 p.m. ET

Brandon Anderson: I guess the below 40.5 when this line was posted after Pittsburgh’s Sunday evening win and wasn’t shocked when it rapidly dropped to 38.5. It is again to the unique whole now and I nonetheless love the underside.

You already know the way significantly better Pittsburgh’s protection has been since TJ Watt returned. Watt and Metal Curtain have made us some huge cash over the previous few months. However the Browns protection has been actually good. They rank sixth in DVOA during the last six weeks, together with high three towards the go.

Cleveland has additionally struggled offensively since switching to Deshaun Watson. The offense is scoring simply 12.6 factors per sport with Watson and the Browns are under common each passing and operating below their new QB heart. It is exhausting for them to discover a resolution towards this nice Steelers protection, however the Browns protection ought to maintain Pittsburgh in verify as nicely and maintain it fascinating.

Steelers video games have been 41 or below in seven of the final eight, and all 5 of Watson’s Browns have gone below that quantity. Watson is 9-4 with lifetime below 44 totals and Kevin Stefanski is 10-4 below 44. This sport additionally matches some late-season classes below the pattern.

I needed to proceed with Pittsburgh because the aspect right here, however there are every kind of crimson flags favoring Cleveland. The Browns match that Week 17 pattern higher than every other crew since profitable final week. Late-season division underdogs are 48-18-1 ATS (73%) on a one-game profitable streak, and late-season underdogs AFC North Divisional video games are 42-23-1 ATS (65%). The Steelers are additionally 4-11 ATS (27%) after beating the Ravens below Mike Tomlin, in order that’s a falling spot even with the playoffs on the road.

I just like the matchup for Pittsburgh. Cleveland’s protection is nice towards the go however remains to be beatable on the bottom, and the Steelers run nicely, whereas Pittsburgh’s defensive energy within the run sport matches up higher.

Nonetheless, at +3, the Browns must lean given all of the red-flagged Pittsburgh tendencies. I might skip a aspect and simply journey below 40.5.



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decide up
Sam Ehlinger Anytime TD (+500)
greatest guide
the time
1 p.m. ET

Sam Farley: This is not a sentence I anticipated to jot down in Week 18, however my greatest guess for the Texans at Colts is Sam Ehlinger scoring a landing at +500.

The rookie hasn’t appeared nice in his two begins for the Colts earlier within the season, however he nonetheless has 11 runs. He needed to make use of his legs, identical to he did throughout his collegiate profession on the College of Texas, the place he had 33 dashing TDs.

Now, he faces one of many worst defenses within the NFL with regards to stopping the run. He is with out the crew’s greatest dashing risk (Jonathan Taylor) so he’ll have an opportunity to make use of his legs and make performs.

Ehlinger will consider he is combating for an opportunity to be a starter subsequent yr — at +500 I believe he is an incredible worth to attain right here.


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decide up
Ravens + Chargers ML parlay (+970)
greatest guide
the time
1 p.m. ET

Brandon Anderson: The Bengals misplaced arguably essentially the most from the choice to cancel Monday evening’s sport. They’ll now not win the 1-seed — although they wanted the assistance anyway — and are clearly upset {that a} loss right here would make them flip a coin to resolve who hosts a rematch in subsequent week’s playoffs.

The road means that no coin shall be flipped.

Bengalis are big favourites. They’re a a lot more healthy crew now that their edge rushers are enjoying once more.

Baltimore remains to be lacking Lamar Jackson, and it is also unsure if Tyler Huntley will play. He’s listed as questionable, and if there are issues about Jackson’s availability subsequent week, it would make sense to relaxation Huntley now. Different key names like Marcus Peters, Calais Campbell and DeSean Jackson are additionally questionable.

The Bengals are a significantly better crew with out Jackson. Baltimore’s offense hasn’t been good, and the passing protection stays very beatable. Joe Burrow has been good within the chilly at 5-1 ATS and will have the ability to do sufficient to safe a win.

However numbers must be performed. Huntley has featured prominently in 10 NFL video games in his profession. All however one in every of them lined the unfold, the one miss by a half-point margin, and completed inside eight subject targets in 10 video games.

John Harbaugh is 5-1 ATS as an underdog of at the least 9.5 factors, with all however a kind of video games ending inside one rating. Harbaugh is aware of find out how to gradual the sport down, make it ugly and provides his guys alternatives.

In the event you just like the Bengals, you would possibly wish to play the second half. Cincinnati lined 21 of its final 24 seconds within the half, and Baltimore had an incredible first half below Harbaugh. A excessive streak like that makes me lean towards Baltimore, and if you happen to assume the Ravens maintain it shut, the under-40s look good. The Ravens are 12-4 below this yr, and the Bengals are 10-5 below.

Keep in mind, it was an emotional, exhausting week for Cincinnati. It is attainable the Ravens punt this sport and wait till subsequent week, but when they fight, I believe they will maintain it shut and provides themselves a shot.

What odds do you give Baltimore to win outright? Ravens +350 on the moneyline, which means 22% to win. But when the Ravens win, then the charger (+138) will rapidly turn out to be a late-afternoon favourite in Denver.

LA is wholesome and a very good crew, however proper now, that line expects the Bolts to relaxation as a result of a Ravens loss locks up the 5-seed for the Chargers and a greater first-round matchup.

We are able to play a Ravens-Chargers ML par at +970 on FanDuel, an implied 9.3%. Baltimore actually has a greater probability to win than this, and a Ravens win triggers nice worth for the Chargers. That is the perfect angle right here.


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decide up
Dawson Knox Anytime TD (+230)
greatest guide
the time
1 p.m. ET

Sam Farley: Massive issues had been anticipated from Dawson Knox this yr, however he by no means actually broke out like everybody anticipated. He stated, identical to final season, when he abruptly appeared on the finish of the buying and selling season, the person will come, the hour will come.

You’ll be able to catch Dawson Knox +230 to seek out the tip zone, which is unbelievable worth. He is scored in every of the previous three weeks and been focused 20 instances in these video games mixed — not dangerous contemplating he is solely been focused 63 instances all season.

Mix that with the truth that he is dealing with a Patriots protection, which, whereas superb, has a weak spot. They gave up 10 touchdowns to tight ends and you may see why +230 appears to be like like an incredible value.



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