Faculty soccer SP+ rankings after Week 13

Faculty soccer SP+ rankings after Week 13

We did not know all of school soccer’s 2022 convention championship sport pairings till late into Saturday evening, however now the desk is ready. We all know who’s enjoying for convention titles, and we all know the CFP pecking order (the highest 4, at the very least). Now we simply have to seek out out who wins.

SP+ will help with that. Listed below are this week’s SP+ rankings.

What’s SP+? In a single sentence, it is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of school soccer effectivity. I created the system at Soccer Outsiders in 2008, and as my expertise with each school soccer and its stats has grown, I’ve made fairly just a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is certainly supposed to be predictive and forward-facing. It isn’t a résumé rating that provides credit score for giant wins or significantly courageous scheduling — no good predictive system is. It’s merely a measure of essentially the most sustainable and predictable facets of soccer. For those who’re fortunate or unimpressive in a win, your score will most likely fall. For those who’re robust and unfortunate in a loss, it should most likely rise.

This week’s movers

Let’s check out the groups that noticed the largest change of their general scores. (Be aware: We’re taking a look at scores, not rankings.)

Shifting up

Listed below are the ten groups that noticed their scores rise essentially the most this week:

  • NMSU: up 6.5 adjusted factors per sport (from 124th to 116th within the rankings)

  • Military: up 4.6 factors (86th to seventy fifth)

  • Kentucky: up 3.3 factors (thirty sixth to twenty fifth)

  • Texas A&M: up 3.2 factors (51st to thirty eighth)

  • BYU: up 3.0 factors (81st to 72nd)

  • UMass: up 2.9 factors (131st to 131st)

  • Purdue: up 2.9 factors (fifty fifth to forty seventh)

  • West Virginia: up 2.8 factors (seventieth to 63rd)

  • Akron: up 2.8 factors (one hundred and thirtieth to 127th)

  • TCU: up 2.6 factors (seventh to sixth)

Rivalry Week gave us a ton of superior nail-biters, however perhaps the only most stunning consequence got here in Lynchburg, the place, amid rumors of Hugh Freeze leaving for Auburn, his Liberty crew obtained its butt kicked in each attainable means by a vengeful New Mexico State. The Aggies beat the Flames 49-14 as 24-point underdogs, protecting the unfold by a cool 59 factors. It stands to cause that they’d rise considerably in SP+ afterward.

(At 5-6, with a sport cancellation earlier within the season, NMSU is making an attempt to get clearance from the NCAA to schedule FCS’s Valparaiso subsequent week to attempt to attain bowl eligibility for simply the second time in 62 years.)

Shifting down

Listed below are the ten groups whose scores fell essentially the most:

  • Coastal Carolina: down 3.4 adjusted factors per sport (from 59th to 69th within the rankings)

  • Toledo: down 2.9 factors (73rd to 81st)

  • Wyoming: down 2.8 factors (93rd to a centesimal)

  • Ohio State: down 2.6 factors (second to 3rd)

  • NIU: down 2.5 factors (117th to 123rd)

  • CMU: down 2.5 factors (104th to 111th)

  • Louisville: down 2.3 factors (thirty first to39th)

  • Utah State: down 2.1 factors (103rd to 109th)

  • North Carolina: down 2.1 factors (thirty fourth to forty sixth)

  • Bowling Inexperienced: down 2.1 factors (116th to 122nd)

Ohio State collapsed within the second half and obtained run off the sector by Michigan for the second straight season, and whereas the Buckeyes fell to solely third in SP+, they had been accountable for one of many greatest drops of the week.

Convention rankings

Listed below are the FBS’s 10 conferences, ranked by common SP+:

1. SEC: 14.6 common SP+ (34.7 common offensive SP+, 20.6 common defensive SP+)
2. Huge 12: 12.6 common SP+ (36.7 offense, 24.4 protection)
3. Huge Ten: 9.1 common SP+ (28.0 offense, 19.0 protection)
4. Pac-12: 6.1 common SP+ (34.6 offense, 28.5 protection)
5. ACC: 2.2 common SP+ (27.5 offense, 25.5 protection)
6. AAC: 0.9 common SP+ (31.4 offense, 30.4 protection)
7. Solar Belt: -2.4 common SP+ (24.7 offense, 27.3 protection)
8. Convention USA: -8.4 common SP+ (26.7 offense, 34.9 protection)
9. Mountain West: -10.7 common SP+ (17.4 offense, 27.9 protection)
10. MAC: -13.1 common SP+ (21.1 offense, 33.5 protection)

These scores have shifted barely with the smattering of nonconference video games from the previous couple of weekends — the SEC eased comfortably forward of the Huge 12 as soon as once more — however let’s have a look at what bowl season does to those averages.

And sure, the ACC is sort of as near the Solar Belt as it’s to the Pac-12 and the remainder of the facility conferences. Only a dreadful season for the convention.

Convention championship sport projections

Based mostly on the scores above, listed here are the SP+ projections for this coming week’s title video games.

  • C-USA: UTSA 39.9, North Texas 28.7 (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)

  • Pac-12: Utah 32.0, USC 31.7 (Friday, 8 p.m., Fox)

  • Huge 12: TCU 30.4, Kansas State 27.4 (Saturday, midday, ABC)

  • MAC: Toledo 30.5, Ohio 29.7 (Saturday, midday, ESPN)

  • Solar Belt: Troy 28.0, Coastal Carolina 18.0 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)

  • SEC: Georgia 32.7, LSU 13.6 (Saturday, 4 p.m., CBS)

  • AAC: Tulane 28.1, UCF 23.4 (Saturday, 4 p.m., ABC)

  • MWC: Boise State 26.0, Fresno State 21.1 (Saturday, 4 p.m., Fox)

  • Huge Ten: Michigan 37.1, Purdue 12.7 (Saturday, 8 p.m., Fox)

  • ACC: Clemson 37.5, North Carolina 27.6 (Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC)

Utah-USC on Friday evening could possibly be excellent (lord is aware of it was nice the primary time these groups performed), and each of the midday video games on Saturday are projected inside three factors. The remainder of the slate? Much less thrilling from a projections standpoint.

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