8 Afternoon Finest Bets, Together with TCU vs. Oklahoma State, Toledo vs. Kent State, Extra
Saturday’s Week 7 school soccer slate rolls on as we flip our consideration from the noons to the afternoons. And allow us to simply say — our employees loves this kickoff window.
They got here by with eight greatest bets for seven completely different video games, starting from 3:30 p.m. ET to 4 p.m. ET. Whether or not you’re in search of a high-profile matchup like Oklahoma State vs. TCU or a lower-tier showdown like Louisiana Tech vs. North Texas or Ohio vs. Western Michigan, we’ve got you lined.
Learn on for all eight of our afternoon school soccer greatest bets, and remember to try our 11 different prime picks for the midday and night slates.
Saturday Afternoon Faculty Soccer Finest Bets
The staff logos within the desk under characterize every of the matchups that our school soccer employees is focusing on from in the present day’s slate of video games. Click on the staff logos for one of many matchups under to navigate to a particular wager mentioned on this article.
Oklahoma State vs. TCU
By Cody Goggin
I like this spot right here for Oklahoma State.
TCU is coming off of a giant win towards Kansas final weekend with Faculty GameDay in attendance. The Horned Frogs, for the second week in a row, received because the opposing beginning quarterback was injured mid-game. That is no slight at TCU, however that reality actually hasn’t damage the Horned Frogs.
TCU’s offense ranks 59th in Offensive Success Fee this season. Oklahoma State has been only a bit higher, rating forty eighth in the identical class and twenty fifth in Passing Success Fee. TCU’s offense is ranked ninth by SP+, however the Cowboys’ offense is on an analogous stage, rating seventeenth.
TCU’s protection is the place I believe that the Frogs will endure this weekend. The unit ranks sixtieth in SP+ and has allowed 24 or extra factors in every of its final three video games.
Kansas’ offense was nonetheless in a position to submit an 86th-percentile Offensive Success Fee towards TCU even with Jalon Daniels being out for a big a part of the sport.
Oklahoma State’s protection hasn’t been fairly as sturdy because the departure of Jim Knowles within the offseason, nevertheless it’s nonetheless ranked thirty second by SP+ and is fiftieth in Defensive Success Fee this season.
This simply units up as the right state of affairs to take the Cowboys and fade the latest hype round TCU. Mike Gundy has received loads of large video games in his profession, and I’m going to belief him to get it performed in Fort Value this weekend.
Choose: Oklahoma State +4 (Play to +3)
Get your popcorn prepared for this Large 12 matchup that may current fireworks as Oklahoma State travels to TCU.
Nobody has had a solution to slowing down TCU’s explosive offense that places up 46 factors per sport. Even towards Large 12 competitors, this offense has continued to thrive by the massive play.
The Horned Frogs rank sixteenth in explosiveness on passing downs behind quarterback Max Duggan. The senior signal-caller is averaging over 10 yards per cross try and has thrown 14 touchdowns to only one interception in his 4 begins this season.
The Horned Frogs additionally boast a prime dashing assault behind Kendre Miller, who’s averaging 6.9 yards per carry. If a protection doesn’t spy Duggan, he may also crush opponents along with his legs, as he’s averaging 6.4 yards per rush try.
Oklahoma State’s offense has been equally as spectacular, averaging 46 factors per sport. Spencer Sanders is having fun with one of the best season of his profession, tossing 12 touchdowns to 2 interceptions whereas averaging 8.2 yards per try.
Sanders has led the offense to the seventh-best explosiveness rating on passing downs this season. Now, he matches up towards a Horned Frogs protection that ranks one hundred and thirtieth in permitting large performs when an opposing offense is behind the sticks.
TCU has allowed its final three opponents to common 30 factors per sport. In the meantime, Oklahoma State’s protection has been suspect, permitting 28 per sport towards offenses that don’t evaluate to TCU’s.
Regardless of this quantity approaching 70, this sport might be a back-and-forth affair with each groups discovering pay grime within the blink of an eye fixed.
Choose: Over 68.5 (Play to 69.5)
Kent State vs. Toledo
These two groups profile pretty comparable in some ways. Each are uptempo, rush-first offenses led by dual-threat quarterbacks,
Nevertheless, one main distinction lies in every staff’s energy of schedule. Toledo has 4 wins over three groups with a mixed three wins. Beating UMass, Lengthy Island and two struggling MAC groups in Northern Illinois (with a backup quarterback) and Central Michigan will definitely result in a good statistical profile.
The Rockets additionally predictably received blown out by Ohio State with the opposite loss approaching the street at San Diego State. The latter appears worse with every passing week because the Aztecs proceed to wrestle. Actually, they simply beat Hawaii at dwelling by virtually the precise closing rating (16-14 over Hawaii, 17-14 over Toledo).
In the meantime, Kent State had one of many hardest nonconference schedules within the nation with three street video games towards Energy 5 opponents Washington, Georgia and Oklahoma. The Golden Flashes misplaced all three as anticipated however truly acquired upgrades in my energy scores after each.
I used to be notably impressed with their effort towards a full-strength Oklahoma, holding the Sooners scoreless for many of the first half. They then adopted that sport up with a really respectable 39-22 loss on the street towards the defending nationwide champions.
For the season to this point, I’ve Kent State with a top-30 energy of schedule, whereas Toledo wouldn’t even crack the highest 130 if I embody FCS groups. Consequently, I believe the statistical profiles and perceptions of those two golf equipment are artificially too far aside.
In the end, I don’t assume there’s that a lot of a distinction between these two groups.
Kent State’s protection clearly charges out poorly after enjoying such a brutal nonconference schedule, however I believe it could be considerably improved, particularly towards the run. That’s key on this explicit matchup. I additionally assume its offense can have success by the air towards a Toledo secondary that has a number of exploitable areas.
Lastly, home-field benefit has little or no impression within the MAC. I’ll fortunately take over a landing with what I consider is the undervalued street pup.
Choose: Kent State +7.5 or Higher
Northern Illinois vs. Jap Michigan
Anyone who wager on — or extra doubtless towards — Northern Illinois final yr is aware of it wanted numerous luck and luck on its run to a MAC Championship.
Nicely, the detrimental regression has lastly set in, and the luck has run out in DeKalb.
The Huskies have misplaced 5 straight video games, three of them with out quarterback Rocky Lombardi. Backup Ethan Hampton is averaging simply six yards per try with seven touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
Jap Michigan additionally handled a quarterback harm, however Taylor Powell is again wholesome, and this staff is simply completely different when he’s below heart. The Eagles are 3-1 with him beginning and have averaged 406.8 whole yards per sport with him and simply 333 yards within the two video games with out him. He has tossed seven touchdowns in his three full video games.
After rolling out one of many worst dashing assaults within the convention over the previous couple of years, EMU lastly has issues happening the bottom with Samson Evans. He leads the MAC with 105 yards per sport and 6 touchdowns.
This can be a nice matchup for the Jap Michigan offense towards a Northern Illinois protection that’s horrendous. It sits within the backside 15 within the nation in Success Fee Allowed, explosiveness allowed, Ending Drives and Havoc.
The Huskies have particularly been torched by the cross. They’ve already given up 22 touchdowns by the air this season — essentially the most of any staff within the nation. They’ve allowed at the least three passing scores in each sport this yr regardless of going through the passing assaults of Jap Illinois, Tulsa, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Ball State and Toledo.
When Jap Michigan will get into scoring territory, it ought to punch it in. The Eagles rank 18th within the nation in Ending Drives, whereas Northern Illinois has been the only worst staff at stopping factors per alternative.
The Huskies are nonetheless getting priced from their run to the title sport final yr, however Jap Michigan should not have any downside profitable this by at the least a subject purpose.
Choose: Jap Michigan -2.5 (Play to -4)
Western Kentucky vs. Center Tennessee
I’ll purchase each the Western Kentucky and MTSU offenses in Week 7.
The Hilltoppers have been held to twenty-eight and 27 factors within the final two weeks, respectively. They hadn’t been held to fewer than 31 factors because the 2020 bowl sport.
They are saying as soon as is an accident, and twice is a development. However I’ll give the Hilltoppers yet another week.
Troy and UTSA’s defenses will function the hardest two-game stretch for Western Kentucky all yr. And though the offense couldn’t contact 30 every of the final two weeks, the unit averaged 475.6 whole yards – a clip that may rank top-20 nationally.
The identical might be mentioned in regards to the Blue Raiders, to an extent. Center Tennessee is contemporary off of a sport vs. DF+’s No. 56 protection in UAB – and the Blue Raiders nonetheless went over the entire in a 41-14 loss, the fourth straight over for the membership.
Each offenses are additionally top-30 in performs per minute. The one factor left to do — apart from money — is rip a drink each time the printed says, “These offenses go so quick that should you blink, you would possibly miss one thing!”
I used to be trying to find something higher than 70 at open, and I’m completely high quality green-lighting the entire all the way in which to it.
Choose: Over 68 (Play to 70)
Ohio vs. Western Michigan
By Dan Keegan
This can be a noon sport that may make for excellent MACtion, nevertheless it’s caught in the course of the day on Saturday.
It’s an incredible candidate to go over the entire of 58.5.
Each defenses are fairly horrible (Ohio is 128th in SP+, Western Michigan is 118th). Neither staff has but to carry an opponent below 31.
Ohio’s offensive numbers are affected by two video games towards SP+ top-20 defenses – it confronted Penn State and Iowa State and scored 10 factors apiece in these video games.
Of their different six contests, the Bobcats have averaged 44.7 factors and 545 yards. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has feasted in these 4 video games, with 408 yards per sport, 11 touchdowns and nil picks.
Western Michigan’s protection is decidedly not a top-20 SP+ protection.
Western Michigan doesn’t have an incredible offense, however its largest weak point will not be a energy of Ohio’s protection. Western Michigan might be vulnerable to detrimental drives – three-and-outs and turnovers – rating one hundred and thirtieth in Beta_Rank’s measure of that statistic.
However Ohio doesn’t power any detrimental drives, rating 126th.
Ohio has persistently allowed opponents to have their greatest scoring days of the yr. The Bobcats have allowed large days to Akron (34 factors), FAU (38 factors) and even FCS Fordham (52 factors).
The Bobcats don’t cease anyone! They are going to supply little resistance to a Broncos staff enjoying on homecoming.
I want this sport occurred on a Tuesday night time in November. However it doesn’t, it’s caught up towards among the largest video games of the yr. Both manner, it’s going to be points-y, it’s going to be enjoyable and it’s going to go over 58.5.
Choose: Over 58.5 (Play to 60.5)
Louisiana Tech vs. North Texas
This can be a great spot right here for North Texas coming off of a bye, and a superb sell-high spot for Louisiana Tech after its first win over an FBS opponent this previous weekend.
Louisiana Tech’s offense is solely reliant on explosive performs within the passing sport. The Bulldogs rank 97th in Passing Success Fee and 77th in EPA/Go, however ninth in passing explosiveness.
Beginning quarterback Parker McNeil is averaging 8.5 yards per try, however owns a PFF passing grade of simply 70.7. He’s additionally tossed 10 Large Time Throws in comparison with seven Turnover Worthy Performs.
The secondary marks the energy of this North Texas protection, and it has responded properly after the entire disaster that happened towards UNLV earlier this season.
The Imply Inexperienced rank sixtieth in EPA/Go, and so they’ve held each Memphis and Florida Atlantic below 6.0 yards per try of their final two video games.
Louisiana Tech has no run sport to talk of, because it’s averaging simply 1.9 yards per try (one hundred and thirtieth in FBS) whereas rating one hundred and thirtieth in Offensive Line Yards and 116th in EPA/Rush.
Austin Aune throwing the ball downfield goes to be the important thing for North Texas on this sport. The Imply Inexperienced rank nineteenth in Passing Explosiveness, and Aune has a 91.4 PFF passing grade with 12 Large Time Throws on passes over 20 yards.
Louisiana Tech ranks 107th in Explosive Passing Allowed, so Aune ought to have the ability to join on some deep balls.
The Bulldogs are additionally having all kinds of hassle stopping the run. They’re permitting 5.9 yards per try whereas rating 119th in EPA/Rush Allowed and a hundred and twenty fifth in Defensive Line Yards.
Nevertheless, essentially the most telling stat of how unhealthy the Louisiana Tech protection has been is perhaps the truth that its PFF tackling grade sits at 33.6, which is the second-worst mark in school soccer.
I’ve North Texas projected at -12.4, so I like the worth on the Imply Inexperienced at -6.5.
Choose: North Texas -6.5 (Play to -7)
James Madison vs. Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern is coming off of two losses in a row the place the protection has been nonexistent. The Eagles have allowed 35 factors per sport towards FBS opponents whereas permitting 6.6 yards per play, which ranks a hundred and twentieth nationally.
The protection has been horrid towards each the run and cross permitting 5.7 yards per carry (a hundred and twenty fifth) and eight.1 yards per cross (103rd).
Extra importantly, will probably be with out seventh-year linebacker Todd Bradley-Glenn on this matchup. The protection has been on the sector so much, and that’s set to proceed on this matchup with out its defensive signal-caller.
The Georgia Southern offense will doubtless air it out on this matchup. James Madison has been stout towards the run, and the Eagles have handed on 60% of their performs this season. Southern is averaging 322 yards per sport by the air and 6.8 yards per cross try.
James Madison’s offense has been scoring on everybody this season, averaging 44 factors per sport. The Dukes have scored 32 factors or extra in each sport whereas exceeding 40 in 4 of their 5 matchups.
That development will proceed on this sport towards a lackluster Georgia Southern protection.
Choose: Over 67 (Play to 69)
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